Intelligence
Europe
81 reports in this category.
The Northern Gambit: Moscow’s Hybrid Escalation against Europe
Russia has shifted from conventional theatre warfare to a sustained drone and sabotage campaign across Western Europe. This is not a prelude to invasion, but a desperate leverage play to trade domestic security for sanctions relief.
24 Jun 2026
The End of Strategic Depth: Russia’s Northern Exposure
Moscow’s centuries-old defensive doctrine relied on vast geography to bleed invaders dry. Miniature, low-cost drone technology has rendered this buffer obsolete, forcing a structural rethink of Russian sovereignty and the vulnerability of its interior.
23 Jun 2026
The Scarcity Doctrine: Why Moscow Must Choose Between Front and Rear
A surge in long-range drone strikes is forcing the Kremlin into a zero-sum game. Russia can no longer shield its industrial heartland without starving its frontline forces of essential air defence layers.
23 Jun 2026
The Rhine-Dnieper Paradox: America’s Permanent Frontier in Europe
European strategic autonomy is frequently framed as a quest for independence from Washington. However, the structural reality suggests that for a unified Europe to lead itself, it requires a permanent American military presence to manage the continent’s internal trust deficit.
21 Jun 2026
The Uralic Lever: Russia’s Strategic Pivot to New Delhi
Moscow is trading short-term energy profits for a permanent strategic alliance with India. This shift signals the end of Russian dependency on European markets and the birth of a new Eurasian power axis.
17 Jun 2026
Mare Clausum: Why the Black Sea is No Longer a Russian Lake
As traditional naval power yields to asymmetric attrition, the Black Sea has become a laboratory for post-modern warfare. Kyiv’s victory in the naval war, achieved without a fleet, is rewriting the rules of global maritime security.
15 Sept 2025
The De-Industrialisation of the Rhine: Europe’s New Energy Reality
Europe has successfully severed its reliance on Russian gas, but the victory is pyrrhic. By trading cheap pipeline energy for expensive global LNG, the continent has fundamentally altered its industrial DNA and shifted its dependency westward.
15 May 2025
Central Asia: The End of Russian Monopoly
As Moscow focuses on the Ukrainian front, the five Stans are quietly rewriting the rules of Eurasian trade. Western capital and Chinese infrastructure are dismantling a century of Russian hegemony in the world’s most strategic land corridor.
15 Jan 2025
The Tsar’s Shadow: How Prigozhin Exposed the Russian Vertical
A year after the Wagner mutiny, the Kremlin appears stable, but the internal architecture of power has fundamentally shifted. Behind the surface of unity lies a system forced to trade efficiency for absolute personal loyalty.
15 Sept 2024
The Silken Trap: Moscow’s Eastern Pivot and the Cost of Survival
As Russia severs ties with the West, its rapid tilt toward Beijing is often framed as a strategic masterstroke. In reality, Moscow is trading European integration for a lopsided dependency that risks turning Russia into a resource colony.
15 May 2024
Internal Borders: The Structural Geometry of a Frozen Ukraine
As the frontline transitions from movement to endurance, the emergence of a 'New 38th Parallel' is shifting from a military failure into a conscious strategic choice for global powers seeking to contain systemic escalation.
15 Jan 2024
The Fortress Pivot: Why Sanctions Failed to Break the Russian State
Western sanctions aimed to collapse the rouble and starve the Russian war machine. Instead, they forced a structural decoupling that accelerated a domestic industrial pivot, creating a resilient, high-pressure economy fueled by redirected energy flows.
15 Sept 2023
The Arithmetic of Ruin: Why Time is the Ultimate Munition in Ukraine
The war in Ukraine has transitioned from a kinetic blitz to a brutal competition of industrial endurance. To predict the victor, we must measure the durability of domestic political will against the fragility of global supply chains.
15 May 2023
Is Algeria becoming an important actor in Europe’s gas supply?
2 May 2022
Are Turkish drones stopping Russian advances in Ukraine?
2 Mar 2022
How Islam Spread to Russia
29 Apr 2021
2021 Forecast: Europe – Will The EU Collapse?
In 2021, Europe will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen. The future of the old continent will to a large extent depend on the evolving global constellation of forces, but also on the way the European Union chooses to position itself.
31 Jan 2021
The UK and EU finalize Brexit deal: What does this mean for the Middle East?
28 Dec 2020