Forecast Hub
What Happens Next
Probabilistic, structural forecasts on global power and conflict. Forecasts are assessments, not certainties — each carries a confidence signal and a time horizon.
ForecastBiden administration approves F35 sale to the UAE: Does this represent a forecast for strong US-UAE relations?
ForecastTunisia launches first indigenous satellite into space: Does this highlight Tunisia’s technological ambitions?
ForecastEU foreign policy chief praises Turkey: What has led to the positive development of EU-Turkey ties in recent months?
ForecastMajor breakthrough in Libya as parliament approves interim government: Why are there still worries about its future?
ForecastLibya’s interim PM submits cabinet proposal to parliament: Will the interim government succeed in unifying Libya?
Forecast2021 Forecast: Europe – Will The EU Collapse?
In 2021, Europe will face challenges both familiar and unforeseen. The future of the old continent will to a large extent depend on the evolving global constellation of forces, but also on the way the European Union chooses to position itse
Forecast2021 Forecast: Asia – Will Asia Lead The World?
In the Chinese Zodiac, 2021 is the Year of the Ox — considered productive for those who are hardworking and methodical and fully feel the weight of their responsibilities. Seven of the 14 major markets in Asia Pacific – China, Taiwan, Vietn
Forecast2021 Forecast: Africa – Neocolonialism At Its Worst
On January 1, 2021, African countries began officially trading under a new continent-wide free trade area. The African Continental Free Trade Area aims to bring together 1.3 billion people in a $3.4 trillion economic bloc that will be the l
ForecastWill the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq go to war with the PKK?
ForecastErdogan announces huge gas discovery: Is this the catalyst to Turkey becoming a superpower?
Forecast5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19
5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19 Global recession, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is not hitting all countries equally. Sovereign nations, as well as those that had a good starting point, will recover much easier than those th
Forecast5 countries that could benefit from COVID-19
Global recession, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, is not hitting all countries equally. Sovereign nations, as well as those that had a good starting point, will recover much easier than those that heavily depend on the global trade and mon
ForecastThe World after Covid-19
Fear and panic have paralysed the world. The Global economy has literally been shut down and life itself has been put on hold. There is only one news that dominates all the media. However, behind the scenes, major global powers seem to have
ForecastPakistan is trying to prevent itself from moving into China’s shadow
China-Pakistan economic corridor will amplify Chinese influence on Pakistan China’s belt road initiative has long been forecasted as a project that would give the superpower complete geopolitical and economic dominance in Asia, and its most
ForecastHow Israel has gained an alliance with the Arab world
The importance of Saudi Arabia and Egypt Israel’s strengthening relationship with Saudi Arabia has built the basis for establishing behind the scenes relations with other Gulf nations, and the arab world as a whole. Saudi Arabia, along with
ForecastIs power and resource competition a threat to Antarctica?
ForecastReality check for Boris Johnson: 5 Geopolitical Effects You Need to Know
1. Lack of options for the UK Despite the confidence Boris Johnson has brought to Brexit negotiations, Britain’s position is worse than ever, as they appear to have been backed into a corner. Among the most major economic issues that the UK
ForecastIs Chile Becoming over-reliant on China: 5 Geopolitical Effects You Need to Know
1. Chinese digital influence in Chile China has had a growing digital role in Chile and has used it as a tool to expand its digital reach. Technological advances have brought the two countries closer together. China’s ride-hailing company D
ForecastProtecting the Baltic States: NATO VS EU
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US-Taliban Peace Talks: 5 Geopolitical Effects You Need to Know
1. Background – US troops withdrawal In the past few months, the US has announced that it is ready to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan, in a gradual withdrawal, but said it would have to find an agreement with the Afghani government and
ForecastBrexit Debates Heat Up: 5 Geopolitical Effects You Need to Know
1. Boris Johnson warns Hard Brexit “will be forced.” Since Boris Johnson was appointed PM, he has made his message clear to the EU, that the UK is ready for a no-deal Brexit. Boris Johnson’s new envoy to Brussels told EU counterparts the UK
ForecastSaudi’s Bin Salman’s Reforms: 5 Geopolitical Effects You Need to Know
1. Neom to be the beacon of Bin Salman’s reform Two years have passed since the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed Bin Salman, announced his Neom city project worth $500 billion, and it now seems to be finally coming to life as construc
ForecastWill Ursula Von der Leyden thrive or be doomed?
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