Intelligence

Situation

258 reports in this category.

The Compute Standard: Reordering National Power for the 2030s

As industrial policy shifts from trade facilitation to technocratic survival, the global hierarchy is no longer determined by labour costs or resource wealth, but by the strategic density of sovereign compute.

14 Jun 2026

Forecasts

The Great Fragmentation: Why Globalisation is Not Dying but Splitting

The era of frictionless trade is over. As geopolitics reclaim primacy over economics, the world is fracturing into two distinct, competing spheres. It is a transition from efficiency to resilience that changes the price of everything.

15 Nov 2025

Forecasts

The Invisible Cartel: Why the Commodities Supercycle Favours Logic over Luck

As the West races to electrify and the East expands its industrial base, the global scramble for raw materials is creating a new hierarchy of power. The real victors are not the miners, but the logistical bottlenecks.

15 Jul 2025

Forecasts

The Balkan Chokepoint: Why 2025 Points to the Drina

While global headlines focus on the Pacific and the Levant, a structural convergence of energy insecurity, ethnic realignment, and Russian diversionary tactics has made the Western Balkans the world’s most dangerous flashpoint for 2025.

15 Mar 2025

Forecasts

The Great Recalibration: Three Global Blueprints for 2030

The post-Cold War consensus has dissolved. As the era of cheap capital and unchallenged American primacy ends, three distinct structural orders are emerging to define the next decade of power, trade, and survival.

15 Nov 2024

Forecasts

The Price of Sovereignty: Three Scenarios for the Taiwan Strait

Global markets treat a Taiwan conflict as a tail risk, but the structural incentives for escalation are accelerating. We analyse the economic and geopolitical costs of blockade, decapitation, and the long-term status quo.

15 Jul 2024

Forecasts

The Sovereign Paradox: Why the Next Crisis Will Not Be a Bank Run

The global financial system has shifted from private risk to public liability. As central banks struggle to wind down balance sheets, the next systemic shock will emerge from the very institutions designed to prevent it: sovereign bond markets.

15 Mar 2024

Forecasts

Unpriced Shocks: The Fragility of the Shadow Financial Buffer

Geopolitical analysis currently fixates on visible kinetic conflicts. Yet the greatest systemic risk lies in the invisible nexus of private credit, offshore dollar liquidity, and the weaponisation of insurance corridors in global trade.

15 Nov 2023

Forecasts

The Fragmentation Horizon: A 12-Month Global Power Forecast

As the post-Cold War consensus dissolves, the next twelve months will be defined by strategic decoupling, the weaponisation of energy transitions, and a violent return to geographic reality. Here is where the map breaks next.

15 Jul 2023