Presidents
Donald J. Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a plateful of thorny issues on
their agenda when they met in the White House this week.
None of the issues, including Turkey’s recent invasion of
northern Syria, its acquisition of a Russian anti-missile system and its close
ties to Russia and Iran, appear to have been resolved during the meeting
between the two men in which five Republican senators critical of Turkey participated.
The failure to narrow differences didn’t stop Mr. Trump
from declaring that “we’ve been friends for a long time, almost from
day-one. We understand each other’s country. We understand where we are coming from.”
Mr. Trump’s display of empathy for an illiberal leader was
however not the only tell-tale sign of the president’s instincts. So was what
was not on the two men’s agenda: security in the Black Sea that lies at the
crossroads of Russia, Eastern Europe, the Caucasus and NATO member Turkey.
The Black Sea is a flashpoint in multiple disputes
involving Russia and its civilizationalist definition of a Russian world that
stretches far beyond the country’s internationally recognized borders and
justifies its interventions in Black Sea littoral states like Ukraine and
Georgia.
The significance of the absence of the Black Sea on the
White House agenda is magnified by the disclosure days earlier that Mr. Trump
had initially cancelled a US freedom of navigation naval mission in the Black
Sea after CNN had portrayed it as American pushback in the region.
The disclosure came in a transcript of closed-door testimony in the US
House of Representatives’ impeachment inquiry of Mr. Trump’s policy towards
Ukraine by Christopher Anderson, a former advisor to Kurt Volker, the US
special representative to Ukraine until he resigned in September.
Mr. Anderson testified that Mr. Trump phoned his then
national security advisor, John Bolton, at home to complain about the CNN
story. He said the story prompted the president to cancel the routine operation
of which Turkey had already been notified.
The cancellation occurred at a moment that reports were
circulating in the State Department about an effort to review US assistance to
Ukraine.
“We met with Ambassador Bolton and discussed this, and he
made it clear that the president had called him to complain about that news
report… I can’t speculate as to why…but that…operation was cancelled, but then
we were able to get a second one for later in February. And we had an
Arleigh-class destroyer arrive in Odessa on the fifth anniversary of the Crimea
invasion,” Mr. Anderson said.
The operation was cancelled weeks after the Russian coast guard fired on Ukrainian vessels
transiting the Strait of Kerch that connects the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov
and separates Russian-annexed Crimea from Russian mainland. ‘This was a
dramatic escalation,” Mr. Anderson said.
Mr.
Trump at the time put a temporary hold on a condemnatory statement similar to
ones that had been issued by America’s European allies. Ultimately, statements
were issued by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and the United Nations
ambassador Nikki Haley but not by the White House.
The
Black Sea’s absence in Mr. Trump’s talks with the Turkish leader coupled with
the initial cancellation of the freedom of navigation operation, the initially
meek US response to the Strait of Kerch incident, and the fallout of the
impeachment inquiry do little to inspire confidence in US policy in key Black
Sea countries that include not only Turkey, Ukraine and Georgia, a strategic
gateway to Central Asia, but also NATO members Bulgaria and Romania.
In
Georgia, protesters gathered this week outside of parliament
after lawmakers failed to pass a constitutional amendment that would have
introduced a proportional election system in advance of elections scheduled for
next year.
The
amendment was one demand of protesters that have taken to the streets in
Georgia since June in demonstrations that at times included anti-Russian
slogans.
Russia
and Georgia fought a brief war in 2008 and Russia has since recognized the self-declared
independence of two Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Some
1500 US troops participated in June in annual joint
exercises with the Georgian military that were originally initiated
to prepare Georgian units for service in Afghanistan and Iraq.
The
absence of the Black Sea in Mr. Trump’s talks with Mr. Erdogan raises the
spectre that the region could become a victim of the partisan divide in
Washington and/or Mr. Trump’s political priorities.
The
Republican-dominated US Senate has yet to consider a bipartisan Georgia Support Act that was last month
passed by the House of Representatives. The act would significantly
strengthen US defense, economic, and cyber security ties with Georgia.
A
Chinese delegation that included representatives of several Chinese-led
business associations as well as mobile operator China Unicom visited the breakaway republic of Abkhazia this week
to discuss the creation of a special trade zone to manufacture cell phones as
well as electric cars.
The
Black Sea is one region where the United States cannot afford to sow doubt. The
damage, however, may already have been done.
Warned
Black Sea security scholar Iulia-Sabina Joja in a recent study: “The region is
(already) inhospitable for Western countries as they struggle to provide
security… The primary cause of this insecurity is the Russian
Federation… Today, Russia uses its enhanced Black Sea capabilities
not only to destabilize the region militarily, politically, and economically,
but also to move borders, acquire territory, and project power into the
Mediterranean.”
Ms.
Joja went on to suggest that “a common threat assessment of NATO members and
partners is the key to a stable Black Sea. Only by exploring common ground and
working towards shared deterrence can they enhance regional security.”
