Country Risk Profile
United States
Structural Polarisation and Fiscal Overstretch vs. Hegemonic Resilience
United States (Americas) — Polarisation, deterrence and global power projection. KJ currently rates United States's overall geopolitical risk as Moderate (38/100).
Overall risk
ModerateExecutive summary
The United States remains the world's pre-eminent military and economic power, yet faces acute internal institutional stress and fiscal deterioration. The primary risk is not collapse, but a volatile transition toward a protectionist, inward-looking posture that disrupts global trade and security architectures. Institutional guardrails remain functional but are being tested by unprecedented political tribalism and the erosion of bipartisan consensus on foreign policy.
Key risks
- Constitutional crisis stemming from contested federal election results.
- Fiscal instability driven by unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratios and political inability to reform entitlements.
- Fragmentation of the global trade system via aggressive U.S.-led protectionism and industrial policy.
- Cyber-sabotage of critical infrastructure by state-sponsored adversaries during periods of domestic distraction.
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Scenarios & strategic implications
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KJ analysis on United States
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