The Great Realignment

Executive summary

1. 1

   Globalisation is not ending. It is becoming strategic, regional and security-driven — efficiency is no longer the organising principle of the world economy.

2. 2

   Artificial intelligence is not only a software revolution. It is a contest over chips, electricity, data centres and capital, and the constraint that matters most is power generation [1].

3. 3

   The Gulf states are converting oil rents into capital, ports, logistics and compute — becoming platforms between Asia, Africa and Europe rather than mere energy exporters [2].

4. 4

   China's manufacturing dominance is being challenged but not easily replaced; its era of cheap, fast growth is over as debt and demographics bind [3].

5. 5

   The United States remains structurally powerful because of capital markets, technology and the dollar — stronger structurally than rivals assume, weaker politically than it looks [4].

6. 6

   The next decade rewards whoever controls chokepoints, critical minerals, energy and compute. Control of flows now matters as much as ownership of factories.

7. 7

   Demography becomes destiny: ageing in China, Europe and East Asia versus youthful India and Africa will reshape consumption, manpower and political stability [5].