Country Risk Profile
Sudan
State Collapse Amidst Dual-General Power Struggle and Fragmenting Sovereignty
Sudan (Africa) — Civil war, displacement and regional spillover. KJ currently rates Sudan's overall geopolitical risk as Severe (92/100).
Overall risk
SevereExecutive summary
Sudan has effectively ceased to function as a unified state following the April 2023 conflict between the SAF and RSF. The crisis is now a multi-polar civil war characterised by ethnic cleansing in Darfur, total institutional collapse, and a catastrophic humanitarian vacuum. External intervention from regional actors is prolonging the stalemate, turning Sudan into a theatre for proxy competition. Restoration of central authority is unlikely in the medium-term.
Key risks
- Permanent territorial balkanisation between SAF-held east/north and RSF-held west/south.
- Spillover of ethnic conflict into neighbouring Chad and South Sudan.
- Total cessation of Red Sea trade transit via Port Sudan if SAF control falters.
- Mass starvation leading to unprecedented migratory pressure toward Europe via Libya.
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KJ analysis on Sudan
- The Sudano-Sahelian Vacuum: A New Continental Struggle for Power
The collapse of the Sudanese state has created a geopolitical void that is forcing a radical rearmament across the Sahel. This is no longer local civil war; it is a structural race for African resource sovereignty.
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