South Korea

KJ analysis on South Korea

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• China sees weakened US ties with Japan and South Korea as a perfect opportunity:

  The US needs a united South Korea and Japan For a long time, the US has enacted strong relations with South Korea and Japan, cooperating economically and militarily, in order to act as a counter-force to China in the region. The US realises that China’s geopolitical and economic strength in the region is currently rapidly increasing, and therefore the trade conflict between Japan and South Korea has come at the worst possible time in their view. In September, South Korea lodged a formal complaint to the WTO over Japan’s trade restrictions but announced they will halt dispute consultations as long as bilateral talks continue, and rocky diplomatic exchanges persisted last month as South Korea’s chief negotiator Chung Hae-Kwan spoke to reporters about ending talks altogether, saying, “We will not have talks for the sake of talks.” This trade dispute, which has been going on for several months, has worried the US, as for them, a disunited Japan and South Korea gives a clear advantage to China’s regional influence. The US has hence put huge pressure on both parties to resolve the conflict, and it appears to have worked in some cases. Under intense pressure from the United States, South Korea reversed itself at the last minute Friday and extended an intelligence-sharing pact with Japan, a sign that the Seoul government wanted to halt fraying relations with the two countries. Taken together, both developments suggested that President Moon Jae-in of South Korea was looking for ways to de-escalate underlying historical tensions, which have caused one of the most serious rifts between the two countries since they normalized relations 54 years ago. The moves came on the eve of a Group of 20 meetings of foreign ministers in Nagoya, Japan, appearing to set the tone for improvement in relations with the United States and Japan that have been increasingly strained. There appear to be signs of easing tensions, but the US will hope to close this dispute fast if it wants to reassert itself and limit China’s rise. China intends to take advantage of weakened US influence As highlighted in point one, over the past months, relations between both South Korea and Japan, and the US have been strained, not solely because of the trade dispute between the 2 Asian nations, but also as a result of the pressure, the US has been putting on them to maintain its influence. For instance when the US were angered over an impasse with South Korea in a separate dispute over the costs of maintaining American troops in the country as a deterrent to North Korea. This weakened relation is seen as an opportunity to China, who appear to intend to strengthen relations with both South Korea and Japan, and hence enact an influence of their own. “The world is now full of various uncertainties and unilateralism, as well as bullying and power politics that have been harming global peace and stability and threatening the right to develop our own countries,” Wang told a meeting of business leaders and former officials on Thursday. It was Wang’s first visit to South Korea in four years and comes as Beijing looks to boost ties with its neighbours. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is set to visit China later this month, and the Kyodo news agency reported that he was expected to meet Xi and take part in a three-way summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in in Sichuan province. It would be the fourth meeting between Xi and Abe since the latter’s visit to Beijing last October. “China has been intensifying a ‘new type of neighbourhood diplomacy’ as a way to offset the American influence in the region, amid their deepening power rivalry,” said Lee Seong-Hyon from the Sejong Institute in Seoul, also adding that China is clearly doing this for its own interests and “not for the sake of the neighbours.” Subscribe to read the full article We wish we didn't have to do this, but only paid subscribers can read the full article, Unlike other publishers, we are not the beneficiaries of State funds and are entirely dependent on our supporters to keep KJ Vids functioning. Please subscribe to read the rest of the article. The First 1,000 subscribers will receive a 50% lifetime discount to our content. - Access over 500 videos explaining global politics - Full access to all articles - Vote on future video topics - Secure Questions for Video Q&As Sign Up - https://www.kjreports.com/product/lifetimediscount/

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  1. North Korea ‘warns’ South Korea with missile test North Korea has fired short-range missiles in the Sea of Japan, from Wonsan on North Korea’s east coast, and called the test of two new missiles on Thursday a “solemn warning” against what it described as “South Korean warmongers”. North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-Un said he was forced to develop new missiles to “eliminate potential and direct threats”. The North Korean leader continued to say that South Korea should “not make a mistake of ignoring the warning”. It appears the tests are a response to the upcoming US-South Korean joint military drills, which NK have long been opposed to, based on fears of a possible invasion. It is important to note the joint drills are an annual event. 2. First hostile act since Trump-Kim meeting The missile tests are the first military tests since Kim and Trump met in the demilitarised zone between North and South Korea, signalling that after a period of positive relations and optimism, tensions may now increase, even more so, should the US and South Korea go ahead with their plans of large-scale military drills. Pyongyang also continues to demonstrate its abilities to develop new weapons despite strict economic sanctions. Earlier this week Mr Kim inspected a new type of submarine, state media reported, which could be developed to carry ballistic missiles, according to some analysts. 3. The US and South Korea do not see tests as a threat Despite this, South Korean-U.S. military command said on Friday a North Korean missile launch the previous day was not a threat directed at South Korea or the United States and had “no impact on our defence posture”. Both nations simply see it as a test of a new type of missile for the military of North Korea. This reaction is not the usual as the US usually responds negatively to North Korean development of new weapons, but is clearly a reaction to earlier talks between Trump and Kim, where it was agreed that NK would reduce their nuclear arsenal, but maintain the improvement of normal military equipment.

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  The American-led pushback against Chinese expansion has exposed a critical vulnerability in the Asia-Pacific which Washington believes needs urgent resolution. Security analysts argue that the failure of its two staunchest Asian allies, Japan and South Korea, to resolve historical grievances puts at risk long-term US regional power-projection. Until this is settled, there can be no creation of a multi-lateral security alliance aimed at keeping in check Chinese influence.

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