Country Risk Profile
Israel
Israel (Middle East) — Security doctrine, regional war and great-power backing.
KJ analysis on Israel
- The Levantine Buffer: Israel’s Quiet Expansion into Southern Syria
As Tel Aviv establishes a 'de facto' security zone beyond the Golan, the traditional depth of the Axis of Resistance is collapsing. This geographic shift fundamentally rewires the cost of Iranian projection in the Levant.
- The Hegemon’s Disconnect: Why Israel Was Left Behind
Washington’s decision to finalise the 2026 Tehran Accord without Israeli consent marks a definitive shift. It signals the end of the US-led security umbrella in the Middle East and the birth of a cold, pragmatic multipolarity.
- How will the Turkey-Israel intelligence war impact relations between the two countries?
- Is normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia now impossible?
- Can the US stop Israel’s plan to expand settlements?
- Lebanon fires rockets into Israel after Al Aqsa raids: Will Lebanon and Israel go to war?
- The Invisible Threshold: Why Iran and Israel Prefer a Shadow War
While rhetoric suggests an inevitable clash, Tehran and Jerusalem are locked in a rational, symbiotic exchange of violence. Systematic escalation serves to prevent total war by defining the exact price of regional influence.
- The Invisible Balance: Why the Iran–Israel War Remains in the Shadows
Behind the escalation of strikes and sabotage lies a sophisticated architecture of restraint. Both Tehran and Jerusalem are choosing limited attrition over total victory to avoid a structural collapse they cannot afford to manage.